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Bruce

China Is Ready Are We?

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Just thought I would throw some facts into this thread :beer:

 

80% of the population are peasants :erm: (no running water or electicity either)

 

I think Japan was just about the same way when they bombed Pearl Harbor

 

:huh:

True, but its not the peasants with the tactical nukes. :blink:

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Ok I'm back...

 

Folks this is a very important subject and very polarizing as to which way we lean...

 

Its bad enough we have a very large country that might try and impose their will on a much smaller country...

 

Lets let us here at the pit not try and impose our thoughts either pro China or pro Taiwan on each other...

 

We got millions of lives at stake over there and possibly even here and nothing said here on this forum is going to change anything here or there....

 

Lets just give our opinions and not let it get personal by attacking others opinions...

 

I really would like to keep this thread open,,I find it interesting to see others thoughts on whats going on over there...

 

Thanks all...

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being the expert that I am, I am not all that worried about it

:lol: ok,,now I feel better...

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:lol: ok,,now I feel better...

honestly, China would just be stupid to take the actions they are claiming they will take. Tawain shouldnt instigate though, as its a good way to not get US backing.

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Political maneuvering. The US won't be going to war there. At least not on this occasion.

 

It is among other things an attempt to drive a wedge into US/European relations which are on shaky enough ground. The US is pushing for the EU arms embargo to remain in place. In addition, they are taking advantage of the awkward position of the US already being heavily committed in the Middle East. Although the international community isn't happy about the law, the Chinese know that the US would have great difficulty in mustering military allies to assist in supporting Taiwan. Hence it is a prime time for China to take advantage of.

 

I think it will draw out the Taiwan issue longer than it otherwise would have lasted (as if it already hasn't lasted a long time) and act as a bargaining chip in political maneuvers by China regarding the US. In some ways it has as much to do with Chinese relations with the US and Europe as much as it does with their relations with Taiwan.

 

There may be some military action, but if so I think it will be limited and the US will either not be involved or will only be involved in a very limited way. Waters may be tested though, and there may be some flexing of muscles.

 

I don't see war breaking out though, and I don't see a draft.

 

If I am wrong, and war does break out, and the US steps up to the plate full bore, it will be very bad and escalate to a huge conflict potentially approaching a world war. And yes, in that case there would be a draft.

Edited by Chopdoc

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Why does anybody?  :erm:

Well Grasshopper, its not a perfect world. We need them to protect ourselves from RADICAL dictators who have more money than brains. Not all people should have children either, but they do. I wish the world wasnt like that, but it is. :blink: Edited by SIK_L_CELL

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There may be some military action, but if so I think it will be limited and the US will either not be involved or will only be involved in a very limited way. Waters may be tested though, and there may be some flexing of muscles.

I see US and Taiwan war games in the near future. I agree with most of what your saying except the bargaining chip theory. If the US was smart they would call their bluff, if they arent bluffing cut off any and all trade with China. It would hurt but I think we would last longer than they would.

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honestly, China would just be stupid to take the actions they are claiming they will take. Tawain shouldnt instigate though, as its a good way to not get US backing.

I understand where your coming from..

 

China has alot on the table here and as a face saving measure I wouldn't put anything past them entirely...

 

We on the other hand have a treaty to protect Taiwan and we all know who the president is and how he feels...

 

I think in the end both sides will blink again,,but for how long is the question.

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Well Grasshopper, its not a perfect world. We need them to protect ourselves from RADICAL dictators who have more money than brains. Not all people should have children either, but they do. I wish the world wasnt like that, but it is. :blink:

Actually, tactical nukes have to do with the obsolete idea of limited nuclear conflict on the battlefield.

 

Tactical nukes are a very specific kind of weapon. Although they are still around, military strategists have all but abandoned the idea.

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that treaty is debateable, it exists but the extent of our protection isnt exactly clear. We could come out and say "If the Tawain issue results in military action by Tawain or China then we will proceed to nuke the first country to make an aggressive military action" then wait to see who blinks.

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I see US and Taiwan war games in the near future. I agree with most of what your saying except the bargaining chip theory. If the US was smart they would call their bluff, if they arent bluffing cut off any and all trade with China. It would hurt but I think we would last longer than they would.

That's the thing though, when I say bargaining chip I don't mean to imply it is a bluff. The threat is very real. A bargaining chip does not have to be a bluff.

 

That being the case I think it would be a very big mistake for the US to call them on it. That would mean war.

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Actually, tactical nukes have to do with the obsolete idea of limited nuclear conflict on the battlefield.

 

Tactical nukes are a very specific kind of weapon.  Although they are still around, military strategists have all but abandoned the idea.

they were a stupid idea once most major countries on the planet went nuclear. As the old saying goes "go big or go home".

 

That being the case I think it would be a very big mistake for the US to call them on it. That would mean war.

I dont agree. China could simply be testing our resolve on the matter. Move some ships to the seas around Taiwan and let them sit there. I think China would get the point. They should also note that due to other obligations its doubtful the US would engage in a conventional manner.

Edited by one2gamble

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that treaty is debateable, it exists but the extent of our protection isnt exactly clear. We could come out and say "If the Tawain issue results in military action by Tawain or China then we will proceed to nuke the first country to make an aggressive military action" then wait to see who blinks.

I think that would be a serious error.

 

The US threatening nukes would surely lead to nothing good.

 

They would call our hand on that one. After that, the US would be dirt as far as the international community is concerned....even just for threatening it.

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Actually, tactical nukes have to do with the obsolete idea of limited nuclear conflict on the battlefield.

 

Tactical nukes are a very specific kind of weapon. Although they are still around, military strategists have all but abandoned the idea.

Thanks for clearing that up. I always enjoy reading your posts man.

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I think that would be a serious error.

 

The US threatening nukes would surely lead to nothing good.

 

They would call our hand on that one. After that, the US would be dirt as far as the international community is concerned....even just for threatening it.

i didnt say threaten, lay out a plan for the area. Create a system of trip wires ;) Similar to what our military force in Germany was to Russia. Make the outcome of any military conflict and what it means very clear to the international community and then drop the discussion. If we cant keep Taiwan in check they have no business asking for our help in the future. As I stated before, if Taiwan instigates a conflict with China I can gurantee you that they will in fact be on their own.

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i didnt say threaten, lay out a plan for the area. Create a system of trip wires ;) Similar to what our military force in Germany was to Russia. Make the outcome of any military conflict and what it means very clear to the international community and then drop the discussion. If we cant keep Taiwan in check they have no business asking for our help in the future. As I stated before, if Taiwan instigates a conflict with China I can gurantee you that they will in fact be on their own.

Make it clear?

 

That is a specific nuclear threat. Regardless, I cannot agree with the US taking the position of making first nuclear strike a policy for any reason, especially in this case.

 

It would blow up right in our face.

 

If we did that, I would agree with those who wish to view the US as a bully and a danger in the world.

 

Our nukes are there. They are to be used in response to a similar attack. The world knows that. It is enough.

 

Yes, if Taiean starts it, they will be on their own, I believe that. But things may be a bit foggy. If there are smaller actions that lead into it rather than a traditional attack, it may be unclear who started it. In fact, if they want to start it, they may bank on that idea.

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It is of my opinion that if Taiwan fails to meet the status quo US backing will be that of "bad china" rather than any military action or even support.

 

Like I said, it may be as simple as moving a few battle groups into the area. China feels very high and mighty right now with US obligations and a growing economy. Their actions arent much different than those of Russia during the cold war.

 

In all honesty I still dont think we will see any major change in the area any time soon. At least not until China can continue its current growth without US trade. It currently cannot.

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It is of my opinion that if Taiwan fails to meet the status quo US backing will be that of "bad china" rather than any military action or even support.

 

 

I agree.

 

But as I said, they are playing on the US/European relations as well. There is some political maneuvering going on here. China is beginning to play on the world stage in a way that is new for them.

 

China feels very high and mighty right now with US obligations and a growing economy.

Yes. As I said, they see it as a prime time to play their cards.

 

I think you are right, there will be no major overt changes, but it is maneuvering for position on the world stage. It could very well yield some very fertile ground for China....or they could lose the hand.

 

Interestingly, if they lose this hand I believe they won't actually lose any ground and will just be back where they started. So it may indeed be a very smart time to play their cards.

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China is a superpower and they will get what they want when they want. I do not think they care what the US says or does. I think it would be a mistake for the US to participate in any major conflict in the area because it will draw in many countries that shouldn't be there.

 

I can see the US and maybe some neighboring countries having a small military pressence in the area to ensure stability for the time being but as for bringing in gunships and jetfighters I would say to hold off and not get too trigger happy. It is nice that the American people have such a strong urge to protect their allies however if the US sends troops in too early then it might be seen as an act of agression.

 

China is a big time player now and has alot of manpower if they need it. They could have an army of about 200 million if they needed, that is healthy adult males between 18-49. Plus their sheer size gives them the ability to manufacture goods quickly.

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Chop,

I would have to disagree, if China plays a hand and loses they will lose Taiwan completely as it will declare independance right away. If China loses Taiwan they could end up losing more control of their people. This could lead to either a shift in government policy or another crack down on opposition voice within the country. Either way the Chinese government has something to lose if they fail.

 

China is a superpower and they will get what they want when they want.

this has never been true

Edited by one2gamble

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