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chengrob

Blix's Assessment Of Iraq

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Basically Blix is saying that he thinks that Iraq is worse off than before the war.

 

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...nm/iraq_blix_dc

 

My issue is how can we here in the US have a totally opposite view? This can only happen because there are no objective measurements on the war on terrorism. So everything is subjective and people's opinions become more important than the facts.

 

In a basketball game, at any point, it is very simple to know which team is winning. But it seems in matters far more important than sports, it is close to impossible to even agree on a single measurement on which this battle is being fought.

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Perhaps the first tangible statistics will come with the first open Iraqi elections, Rob.

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Basically Blix is saying that he thinks that Iraq is worse off than before the war.

 

 

Too Minnie smart bums? :huh:

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Blix, a lawyer and former Swedish foreign minister who at 75 now serves as chairman of Sweden's Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, retired from the United Nations last June.

There's something about that statement that just doesn't feel right to me...

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Actually I think if you use the sports analogy Iraq is rather similar.

 

You have some teams that go in and wipe out the other team in the first half or three quarters but the other team plods along and wins the game at the last quarter or few minutes.

 

You have other teams that are up and down through out the game.

 

But the statistics generally predict the winner (that's why the house maintains a profit in sports book). Still there are people that bet against the house. They look at the same statistics and say 'well just because the all of the statistics show the team will not win and the team is doing worse as time goes on I think they will rally or the other team will screw up.' My point is that there are always people that do not rely upon or ignore the data. This is a fairly well known psychological phenomenon Cognitive Dissonance I think. I think Dave mentioned this before.

 

The point being that it is very hard to reverse directions in decisions after supporting a position for along time. There is an abundance of data that says the current administration wanted to do something with Iraq no matter the excuse. Haven't gone there and stirred up a hornets nest they are not going to reverse themselves. You can't run around complaining about flip-floppers while flip-flopping yourself.

 

The number of terrorist incidents are up world wide since the attack on Iraq. The number of American lives lost to terrorists is up since Iraq (discounting 9-11). The intelligence agencies indicate that there is continuing terrorist recruitment since Iraq. Bush says that he expects there will be more attacks and more frequent attacks until the elections at the end of June. If he is right that will mean more of a war than we had when we were at war. If you were a gambling person that played the odds would you say that we can have free and fare elections in Iraq in 110 days and that the resulting government is going to welcome us? Would you say that that America has succeeded in reducing our risk of terrorism when we have 1 million people illegally crossing our borders annually? Are we safer now hat we have few allies? Are we safer now that militant Islam can point to the US as a rogue nation that attacks without support of the UN?

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In the short term violence will be on the rise,, and this is violence in front of the world camaras,,unlike before the war started where it was all done in torture chambers with no documentation or camaras.

 

Its going to be a bloody few months in Iraq for sure. hopefully the final outcome will be a better life for all Iraqis. and a few less thugs to spread terror through the rest of the world.

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Its been a year , Volt ...and its steadily getting worse ...with more new players...! is it short term ?

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Its been a year , Volt ...and its steadily getting worse ...with more new players...! is it short term ?

May take 2 more years,,may take 2 more months. saddam had better than 20 to screw it up tho.

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Guest Deuces Wild

World War 1 lasted 5 years.

 

World War 2 lasted 6 years.

 

This is indeed World War 3 and it will last longer than 1 year.

Edited by Deuces Wild

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better life for all Iraqis

Volt,

 

This is my point. How do we measure that Iraqi's have a better life? By poll data? per capita GDP? Unemployment? Life expectancy? So on.

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I'm not sure it fair to talk about the murders under Saddam having suddenly disappeared. I thought I heard an administration official the other day talking about the continuing murder of Iraqi citizens (not counting the terrorist attacks). Unfortunately I could only find this reference.Death squads I understood the administration to representative to say that these death squads were suspected to be Muslims killing off people opposed to a Muslim state. That being the case apart from creating more terrorists it seems the only thing achieved by doing away with Saddam is moving from state sponsored torture and murder to religiously sponsored murder (I suspect torture also).

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World War 1 lasted 5 years.

 

World War 2 lasted 6 years.

 

This is indeed World War 3 and it will last longer than 1 year.

Viet Nam lasted 13 years. 57,000 dead and for what?

 

I certainly don't see any tangible goal that can be accomplished. It just isn't possible, all we have done is created a mess that will go on for many years to come until they get another dictator to get them all under control again.

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Guest Deuces Wild

And the two wars I mentioned lasted 5 and 6 years, respectively.

 

My point was that not much should be expected in a major conflict like this in a year. ;)

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Surely no one can equate world military powers like Germany in the first world war and Germany and Japan in the second world war with Iraq. A large desert controlled by a decimated military that was questionably loyal to a dictator. This first 2 world wars literally involved most of the worlds military on all continents while Iraq involved the US, a few powerful allies and opposition by much of the rest of the world. How can these even be discussed in the same sentence.

 

Perhaps it makes more sense to talk about Haiti as a model rather than WW2 or 1. How is Haiti going BTW?

 

If the WW2 model is correct and it took 5 years to defeat the axis powers it took less than 10 more years to establish viable governments and economies. So since the Iraq war took less than 4 months it should take 8 months to establish a viable economy and government?

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Guest Deuces Wild

'Tis far more than Iraq CDave...it is the Middle East terrorist organizations, arguably more powerful than Germany and Japan ever were.

 

Regardless, to think a major conflict should be completed in a year is not being reasonable.

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Tell that to the guy who had "mission accomplished" banners hung up on an Aircraft Carrier. ;)

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Guest Deuces Wild

I did not see the picture but I would guess the banner was appropriate as they most likely were finished with a leg of the campaign and did so victoriously.

 

However, this is a war on all of terrorism as was promised since day one and it is certainly far from over.

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I personally don't think this conflict can be compared to anything but Vietnam.

 

The American military would be wise to start considering and dealing with the demoralization of it's troops if it continues.

 

With the new uprising of Sunni's , things aren't going to get settled for a long , long time.

 

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?...WORLD&oid=48564

 

The 30-year-old cleric commands wide support among the poorest of Shi'ites, who rally to his anti-U.S. rhetoric and promises of power for a community oppressed by Saddam Hussein.

This guy has the ear of the general population of Iraq (average age in Irag is 25 to 30 years)

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the latest reports in the media about a so-called "uprising" of shi'ite muslims has been called "hardly an uprising" by those on the ground in iraq. it sounds like a lot of hype to me. that cleric feeds off of the poor and uneducated, what we need to do, in addition to rooting out terrorists, is try to strengthen education in the region.

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that cleric feeds off of the poor and uneducated,

Sounds like a pretty big following in Iraq , pretty much the general population I would figure.

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Guest Hurdy

BBC

 

 

The BBC's Nick Childs at the Pentagon says the timing and the nature of the latest violence may make it the most serious potential threat to the US-led coalition in Iraq for nearly a year.

 

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While I appreciate that the administration continues to change the reason we went to war in Iraq (I think George Orwell called it Newspeak in 1984) prosecution of the war on terrorism was not among the reasons originally cited to justify the invasion. There is still less evidence tying Iraq to terrorism than there is tying Saudi Arabia or North Korea to terrorism. So if this is about terrorism why are those countries not yet invaded? If this is about terrorism why were the intelligence agencies warning that invading Iraq could foment terrorist activity? Why was GWB focused on Iraq when he acknowledged that he nor the nation was focused on terrorism? Why is terrorist activity increasing? How does turning over an oil rich country to radical Muslim clerics reduce terrorism? I am afraid I don't see how one can link the WMD war of Iraq with the war on terrorism whose flames we fan.

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the latest reports in the media about a so-called "uprising" of shi'ite muslims has been called "hardly an uprising" by those on the ground in iraq. it sounds like a lot of hype to me. that cleric feeds off of the poor and uneducated, what we need to do, in addition to rooting out terrorists, is try to strengthen education in the region.

Yep the 12 American soldiers they killed and 2 dozen wounded today were imaginary hype. :mrsgreen: Edited by Bruce

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However, this is a war on all of terrorism as was promised since day one and it is certainly far from over.

Which "Iraqi" terrorists attacked the United States? :blink:

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"is try to strengthen education in the region" I think that is a great idea. Bush can do that too. He is having so much success with his education program in the US. :lol:

 

Seriously, if the problem is uneducated, down trodden, unemployed doesn't this include more than 90% of the Iraqis?

 

As for the Vietnam comparison I think a better model is Haiti. Rapidly overrun a 3rd world military. Try to establish tranquility. Install a favorable government in a country unprepared for democratic rule. Get out. Wait for the country to fall apart with increased crime, unemployment, and bribery. Go back in to remove the government and try to leave again with the country no better off than when we went in.

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