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kd5

Memory prices

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I recall someone saying that this was the time of year when memory prices are up. At what time of the year are memory prices down? How long will increased memory prices last? Does this also affect video card prices, considering the memory used in them?

 

Figured this might be something we could discuss in the new Tech Talk forum. -kd5-

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KD5,

 

Memory prices are a function of supply and demand if the memory companies are not price fixing.

 

A good way to judge where memory prices are going is by analyzing whether the major PC OEM"s are making their numbers. That's Dell, Gateway and HP. They are the major users of memory. If they miss their numbers, then that means there is lots of unsold memory sitting in their inventories. Putting downward pressure on prices. Unfortunately, it seems that everyone made and exceeded their numbers. Meaning that they are expediting memory increasing overall pricing.

 

At least, that's my look.

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So it has nothing to do with the time of year it is? At least from your perspective? -kd5-

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I noticed the prices jumping about 30 days ago. Maybe even earlier. Sometime the end of September. I attributed it to the new DDR2 having an impact on things but it seemed like even older memory was going up too.

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kd5,

 

I do not believe that time of the year will impact memory prices on a consistent basis. At Gateway, we saw a lot of seasonality in demand for PC's. Christmas, Back to School and Graduation in consumer. And the last month of each quarter, and December in corporate. Put this all together and November and December are the biggest months of the year for PC sales.

 

Since this happens every year, all companies are baking this into their plans so as to avoid a delivery hiccup effecting earnings. Anything that is predictable will not impact prices. The things other than price fixing that impacts prices are unpredictable.

 

A quality problem in production, a competitor going out of business. The factors that make prices go down are the following. Excess inventories that indicate that supply is less than demand, and Moore's Law which allows the memory makers to consistently make bigger memory chips for the same price. Technology transitions also can make prices go down on the older technology.

 

The price fixing scandals really burn my butt, because memory and processor price reductions keep the industry vibrant, because all of the PC OEM's pass through the price reductions to the customers. Note: I am hearing word that the reason why Dell, HP and Gateway's margins are all up are because of not passing through memory price reductions.

 

That's my look.

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What I have noticed about prices is that late spring and early summer usually sees at least modest price drops over most computer parts :crash: This has been a pattern over the last 6 or 7 years which is why I usually build my new system at that time :rofl2:

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BB,

 

Gateway worked in a similar way back in my day. The forecasts of the PC OEM's still drive everything. I was thinking that we might see RAM prices drop considerably in April of next year for two reasons. My feeling is that many of the pc makers are over forecasting the amount of pent up demand for Vista. And also Vista has expanded memory requirements. In addition, April is the worst month of the year from a demand standpoint.

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